Current Context
Current Ukraine Crisis
The conflict in Ukraine began in 2014 when Russia annexed Crimea and escalated in Eastern Ukraine, particularly in Donetsk and Luhansk. The war has resulted in thousands of deaths and displacement of civilians, with estimates of over 29,579 people killed and 6.2 million displaced as of early 2022 (United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA),2022). The Russian invasion of 2022 exacerbated the 2014 conflict and launched a full-scale war. The conflict has also had severe environmental consequences, including contamination of land, water, and air due to the use of explosives and hazardous materials. Efforts to resolve through diplomatic means have been ongoing, but the situation remains complex and dynamic, with ongoing concerns about the humanitarian and geopolitical implications of the conflict (United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP),2022).
Ukraine’s Current Hazard Management and Disaster Resilience Mechanisms
1. Governance Systems
i. Emergency Management
At the national level in Ukraine, key disaster risk management (DRM) agencies are instrumental in safeguarding citizens and responding to emergencies, irrespective of the ongoing conflict. The Ministry of Internal Affairs holds a central role in shaping state policies for citizen rights protection, crime prevention, civil order maintenance, and overall security. Collaborating closely with the General Prosecutor's office, it investigates unlawful acts and ensures the safety of important individuals. Another pivotal entity, the State Emergency Service of Ukraine (SESU), spearheads disaster management, firefighting, and emergency response efforts, playing a crucial role in coordinating responses to diverse emergencies. SESU's multifaceted tasks encompass civil protection, emergency prevention, rescue operations, fire safety, and hydrometeorological activities. Additionally, the agency oversees legal compliance in these domains, proposes policy-making initiatives to the Minister of Internal Affairs, and engages in state policies related to volunteer activities.
Ukraine is a unitary state with three levels of administrative divisions: 27 regions (24 oblasts, cities with special status, and 1 autonomous republic), 136 raions, and 1,469 hromadas.
In response to the challenges posed by the conflict, the Ministry for Reintegration of the Temporarily Occupied Territories (MRTOT) has emerged as a vital agency. Tasked with collecting and consolidating weekly needs assessments from Regional Military Administrations, MRTOT focuses on providing humanitarian aid, including essential household items, sanitary and hygienic products, as well as food and medicines.
In response to Ukraine’s decentralization push prior to the invasion, beginning in 2014, hromadas have become a locus of local development efforts in Ukraine. Since then, their ability to amalgamate, broaden competencies and access financial resources has made them partially responsible for Ukraine’s continued resilience (Ponareurasia, 2023).
ii. Urban Planning and Development
The General Scheme of Planning of the Territory of Ukraine establishes the fundamental principles and strategic solutions for the planning and utilization of the country's land. It encompasses priorities such as enhancing settlement systems, promoting sustainable development in communities, advancing industrial and social infrastructure, improving engineering and transport networks, and establishing a comprehensive national ecological network. The responsibility for territorial planning lies at various levels of governance, including the state, regions, and local entities.
iii. Transportation
Ukraine has a network of over 200,000 kilometers of roads. The network of railways in Ukraine (excluding the temporarily occupied territories before the full-scale war) amounts to 19,800 km, of which 47% are electrified. Ukraine has 18 seaports, 13 of which are located on the continental territory of Ukraine; the other five are in the temporarily occupied territory of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea.
As of February 2023, total damage was estimated at USD 35.7 billion (17.8% of 2021 GDP). The war has led to the destruction of 25,000 km of roads and 344 bridges and overpasses. The greatest share of the losses was in Donetsk (26%), Kherson (15%), Luhansk (15%) and Zaporizhzhia (14%) regions. The railway system was also affected, with 507 km of track and 126 stations damaged. The greatest destruction was witnessed in Donetsk (36% of total rail infrastructure damage) and Zaporizhzhia (23%) regions. As of February 2023, 19 civilian airports had been damaged, with the runway destroyed at 12 of them (Kyiv School of Economics, 2023).
iv. Built Environment
The Law of Ukraine on the Regulation of Urban Planning Documentation defines planning and development of territories as the activity of state bodies, local self-government bodies, legal entities, and individuals. Article 12 of the Law stipulates that the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine shall develop planning schemes for certain parts of the territory of Ukraine: several regions, the coasts of the Black and Azov Seas, the mountainous areas of the Carpathians, the territories affected by radioactive contamination because of the Chornobyl disaster, and other areas with an increased technogenic load or the risk of emergencies.
More than 80 percent of the cities have experienced population decline, but shrinking cities are disproportionately concentrated in the East and growing ones are disproportionately concentrated in the West (World Bank Urbanization Review, 2015). Seventy percent of the total population of Ukraine is urbanized. The country’s housing sector comprised approximately 18 million housing units in 2021.
The extent of damage to the built environment is unknown in this fluid and uncertain ongoing conflict at the time of this report.
v. Climate Change and Natural Hazards
Ukraine faces significant exposure to hydrometeorological hazards and natural disasters, posing a substantial threat to agriculture and human well-being. Seasonal flooding and droughts are prevalent, with heightened risks from riverine and urban floods, as well as wildfires. The impact of climate change amplifies these vulnerabilities, contributing to increased occurrences of droughts, high temperatures, heatwaves, heavy precipitation, mudflows, and floods. Notably, heavy rainstorms are linked to common natural disasters, triggering mudslides and widespread flooding that adversely affect agricultural areas, residences, and industrial structures. Anticipated climate change effects, such as intensified temperatures, altered rainfall patterns, prolonged heat waves, and water scarcity, further escalate the likelihood and severity of natural disasters in Ukraine. Recent trends reveal a rise in the frequency of catastrophic events, resulting in loss of life and substantial economic damage in the region. (Source: World Bank, Country Climate Knowledge Portal)
vi. Energy
Before the war, Ukraine’s energy sector played a significant role in its economy, contributing 17% to its GDP. The country has four nuclear power plants, 13 thermal power plants, 33 combined heat and power (CHP) plants, eight hydro power plants and three pumped hydro power plants. In addition to its electricity generation and distribution infrastructure, Ukraine has a significant infrastructure for gas transportation.
According to the World Bank (February 2023), the total damage to the country’s power, gas, heating and coal-mining infrastructure amounts to USD 10.6 billion (5.3% of 2021 GDP). The most significant losses have been in electricity generation, power transmission, gas distribution and oil refinery facilities. The estimated post-war reconstruction needs in the energy sector are much higher than the damage value and stand at USD 41.3 billion, with USD 34 billion required for power system reconstruction, USD 3 billion for the rebuilding of oil refineries and USD 2 billion for reconstruction of the gas transportation system.
vii. Telecommunications
Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine began in February 2022, CSIS (Center for Strategic and International Studies) estimated substantial physical damage to the 4,000 telecommunications base stations and 60,000 kilometers of fiber optic lines, with consequences to energy, water and other infrastructure that depend on the system (Arends et al., 2023).
Russian state-sponsored APT actors exhibit advanced cyber capabilities, including compromising third-party infrastructure and software, deploying custom malware, and infiltrating cloud environments, showcasing their sophisticated tradecraft (CISA,2024). Hazard mitigation planning should consider cyber and physical risks to telecommunications infrastructure on which the recovery of core public services and households also depends. The US Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, which signed a cooperative cybersecurity agreement with Ukraine in 2022, has developed guidance planners that operators can use to reduce risks (CISA,2024).
2. War-related Impacts on Climate Change
The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has resulted in a range of environmental challenges with significant implications for both the country and its neighboring regions. Bombs and rockets used in the conflict contain toxic elements like lead, cadmium, and mercury, which pose long-term threats to human health and the environment. Soil contamination affects over 10.5 million hectares of agricultural land, impacting the health and safety of Ukrainians and global food security. Water infrastructure, including dams and supply systems, has been targeted, posing a threat to clean water availability. Natural habitats, including forests and wetlands, have suffered damage, leading to deforestation and loss of biodiversity. Additionally, the occupation of nuclear power plants by Russian troops has heightened the risk of accidents. The flooding of coal mines due to conflict-related damage has led to salinization and soil degradation, potentially contaminating groundwater sources. These environmental challenges collectively underscore the urgent need for comprehensive efforts to mitigate their impacts and restore stability in the region.
Cascading effects of conflict, such as the bombing of the dam on the Dnipro River, led to major flooding in war-zone areas (New York Times, 2022). Water infrastructure, including pumping stations, purification plants, and sewage facilities, has also suffered significant damage, and multiple industrial facilities, warehouses, and factories have been damaged, some storing a range of hazardous substances ranging from solvents to ammonia and plastics (UNEP, 2022).
The war has destroyed fundamental infrastructure systems and damaged the environment. Recovery will require planning to restore the environment, reduce vulnerability to future hazards, and design of infrastructure systems that can adapt to and sustain their functions in the face of climate change and future hazards. Infrastructure sectors and systems are owned and operated by a combination of national agencies, private companies, and local or territorial government entities. Recovery guidance will have to address how they work together to restore, recover, and invest in adaptive capacity.
In summary, the challenge ahead for recovery is for it to be done in such a way that there is enhanced resilience and adaptability to climate change and other hazards expected to continue after the war.